Vol.1 | Issue 1

Effects of Macro Uncertainty on Subjective Uncertainty and Mean Expectation

Giulia Piccillo (GP) *, Poramapa Poonpakdee (PP) * / 2020-12-31

Macro uncertainty affects the assessed probabilistic distribution of individual economic forecasts. In this study, we empirically document the effects of macro uncertainty on subjective uncertainty (second moment) and mean expectation (first moment) of GDP growth and income forecasts. Based on the…